Goldman Sachs predicts India will overtake the US to become the second largest economy in 2075, while Indonesia will jump up to the forth spot.

Goldman Sachs has just published its “Global Economics Paper: The Path to 2075 — Slower Global Growth, But Convergence Remains Intact” which reveals the organization’s projections on the global economy’s major themes and EM and DM growth to 2075. 

According to Goldman Sachs, there are 4 four major themes for the global economy.

Theme #1: Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth.

It implies that during the next ten years, global growth will average just under 3% annually and be on a steadily falling path, mostly due to slower labor force expansion. Global population growth has decreased by half during the previous 50 years, from 2% to less than 1% annually, and is anticipated to reach nearly zero by 2075.

Theme #2: The continued convergence of the emerging markets (EM), driven by Asia’s powerhouses.

Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, relative to developed market (DM) growth, EM growth is still greater.

Therefore, China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany will be the world’s five largest economies in 2050 (measured in real USD) with Indonesia displacing Brazil and Russia among the largest EMs. With the right institutions and policies, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt could be among the largest economies in the world by the year 2075.

 

techbiz.network India and Indo in top 6 biggest economies
Hình 1: Những nền kinh tế lớn nhất Thế giới (tính theo USD). Nguồn: Goldman Sachs

Theme #3: The decade of US exceptionalism, which is unlikely to happen again.

Over the previous ten years, the US has performed relatively better than anticipated. However,  history indicates that this is not likely to happen again over the following ten years. Large EM economies continue to have higher potential growth than the US, and over the next 10 years, some of the US Dollar’s exceptional strength of the past few years is expected to unwind.

Theme #4: Less global inequality, more local inequality. 

Global income distribution is now more evenly distributed as a result of EM convergence during the past 20 years. While wealth disparity between countries has decreased, income inequality within countries has increased. Future globalization faces a significant difficulty as a result of this.

 

techbiz.network Tang truong cua cac nen kinh te lon nhat
Figure 2: GDP level projections in Real USD trillion. Source: Goldman Sachs

The rise of emerging economies like India and Indonesia in the next 10 to 50 years is arguably one of Goldman Sachs’ most noteworthy projections in this study.

The figures 1 and 2 predict the real US Dollar value of major economies through time combining Goldman Sachs’ GDP projections and long-term real exchange rate projections. These suggest that China will surpass the US economy as the largest economy in the world around 2035. This is roughly ten years later than what Goldman Sachs predicted in 2011, mostly because of the organization’s downward adjustments to Chinese potential growth. 

Despite the fact that China’s growth prospects currently appear gloomy, Goldman Sachs also highlighted a number of significant factors that led them to expect China to surpass the US in the near future. Those factors are: First, China’s GDP has already cut the majority of the gap with the US GDP (from 12% of the US GDP in 2000 to just under 80% today). Second, Goldman Sachs’ updated forecasts show that potential growth in China is still much larger than in the US (4.0% vs. 1.9% for 2024–29, shown in the figure 3), despite major downward adjustments. Third, in addition to differences in prospective growth, a portion of the US Dollar’s real overvaluation compared to the Chinese Yuan is anticipated to be unwound over the next 10 to 15 years.

 

techbiz.network EM and DM GDP growth to 2070
Figure 3: Real GDP Growth Projections. Source: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs also projects China, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Germany are predicted to be the five largest economies in the world in 2050. Indonesia has an impressive jump in this list when displacing Brazil and Russia among the list of largest EMs over this horizon.

The US, China, and India are expected to be the three largest economies in the world in 2075, with India overtaking the US. Due to its better demographic outlook, US potential GDP growth is predicted to be significantly faster than China’s at that horizon. With the appropriate policies and institutions, economies like Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt could grow to be some of the largest in the world as a result of high population increase in these countries.

Two research teams reverse the signs of aging in mice, raising the hope for similar results in humans.

Elon Musk’s latest drama: a lawsuit over his Tesla buyout tweets

Tômtex- a company owned by a Vietnamese turns seafood shells and coffee grounds into garment leather

This innovative AI can imitate your voice of any tones and emotions using just three seconds of your audio.

Vietnam’s Tech Awards 2022: Shopee Express won The Best Delivery App award while Lazada was recognized as The Best E-commerce Platform in 2022

Uniqlo owner increases pay in Japan up to 40%

Goldman Sachs predicts India will overtake the US to become the second largest economy in 2075, while Indonesia will jump up to the forth spot.

9 amazing apps using ChatGPT that make your life easier

Elon Musk broke the Guinness World Records for losing the most money in history

Son Doong Cave in Vietnam was selected by The Travel as one of the Top 10 Most Incredible Caves in the World

techbiz.network google and microsoft mass lay-off

Google followed Microsoft’s announcement of a 10000 employee layoff with a 12000 employee layoff

On Friday, the CEO of Alphabet- Google’s parent company, Sundar Pichai, informed staff that the company would cut 12,000 jobs …
techbiz.network pique and casio

Casio’s stock price plummeted after announcing the brand’s partnership with Gérard Pique

Shakira is a well-known face in the music industry and may be one of the world’s most popular singers. This …
techbiz.network google and microsoft mass lay-off

Google followed Microsoft’s announcement of a 10000 employee layoff with a 12000 employee layoff

On Friday, the CEO of Alphabet- Google’s parent company, Sundar Pichai, informed staff that the company would cut 12,000 jobs …
techbiz.network David Sinclaire reverses the sign of aging

Two research teams reverse the signs of aging in mice, raising the hope for similar results in humans.

A decade after Kyoto University biologist Shinya Yamanaka was awarded a shared Nobel Prize for discovering a cocktail of proteins …
techbiz.network christmas sweets

Most popular Christmas sweets in the world

Christmas is a special occasion when family members gather around the table and enjoy good food together. During Christmas a …
techbiz.network thanksgiving traditions

American Thanksgiving traditions and festivities

Thanksgiving is a national holiday in several countries such as USA, Canada, Grenada, Liberia, Saint Lucia. However, people in many …
techbiz.netwok son doong cave

Son Doong Cave in Vietnam was selected by The Travel as one of the Top 10 Most Incredible Caves in the World

Son Doong Cave in Vietnam, known as one of the largest caves in the world and for its unique beauty, …
techbiz.network Sapa

Things you should know when visiting Sapa, Vietnam

Sapa (or Sa Pa) is a popular tourist destination among both Vietnamese and international tourists. But even if you have …
techbiz.network tech awards 2022

Vietnam’s Tech Awards 2022: Shopee Express won The Best Delivery App award while Lazada was recognized as The Best E-commerce Platform in 2022

Shopee Express won the best delivery application award at the recent Vnexpress newspaper’s Tech Award 2022, beating out other nominees like …
techbiz.network uniqlo raise pay in Japan

Uniqlo owner increases pay in Japan up to 40%

Uniqlo owner, Fast Retailing Co, announced on Wednesday that it would increase the yearly pay for full-time workers in Japan …
Talks with Leaders, Ep8: 1st AI Doctor Assistant in Vietnam provides 90+% correct diagnosis within 5s

Talks with Leaders, Ep8: 1st AI Doctor Assistant in Vietnam provides 90+% correct diagnosis within 5s

In this eighth episode, we’ll learn about VinBrain, a VinGroup subsidiary dedicated to developing AI and IoT technologies for …
techbiz.network blockchain meets metaverse

Talks with Leaders, Special episode: Blockchain meets Metaverse, featuring business leaders, investors, tech experts and global influencers

On November 14, 2021, the live webinar Blockchain meets Metaverse was successfully organized by TechBiz with the participation of …
techbiz.network Vall-E

This innovative AI can imitate your voice of any tones and emotions using just three seconds of your audio.

According to reports, a new language model from Microsoft Vall-E, can mimic any voice using only a three-second sample. The …
techbiz.network google and microsoft mass lay-off

Google followed Microsoft’s announcement of a 10000 employee layoff with a 12000 employee layoff

On Friday, the CEO of Alphabet- Google’s parent company, Sundar Pichai, informed staff that the company would cut 12,000 jobs …

techbiz.network polygon x Nike

Nike has unveiled “.Swoosh”, a new web3 platform to sell NFT-based products and virtual clothing

In a press release published on November 14, Nike introduced “.Swoosh”, a new web3 platform powered by the polygon network …

techbiz.network Polygon 2022

Polygon claims 2022 a “Breakout Year” and predicts major trends for 2023

Polygon has published a report summarizing its achievements in 2022 and presenting expectations as well as plans for 2023. In …

techbiz.network genesis and ftx crisis

The crypto lender Genesis Global Capital is in danger of going bankrupt. The crypto market is waiting in fear for another dump.

A report from Bloomberg on November 22 states that Genesis has $2.8 billion in unpaid debts on its balance sheet, …

techbiz.netwok son doong cave

Son Doong Cave in Vietnam was selected by The Travel as one of the Top 10 Most Incredible Caves in the World

Son Doong Cave in Vietnam, known as one of the largest caves in the world and for its unique beauty, …
techbiz.network Toomtext turns food waste into leather

Tômtex- a company owned by a Vietnamese turns seafood shells and coffee grounds into garment leather

Tômtex, a flexible bio-material created by Vietnamese designer Uyen Tran from seafood waste, is a substitute to leather that …
techbiz.network estee lauder

Estée Lauder- the story and philosophy behind the success of a leading beauty brand

The Estée Lauder Companies IncThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is one of the world’s leading manufacturers, marketers, and sellers of …

techbiz.network OEM advertising

Is OEM advertising the next disruptive solution that helps businesses win customers?

Many factors have shown that OEM advertising will be the next big thing for user acquisition. If you are a …

techbiz.network estee lauder

Estée Lauder- the story and philosophy behind the success of a leading beauty brand

The Estée Lauder Companies IncThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is one of the world’s leading manufacturers, marketers, and sellers of …

techbiz.network christmas sweets

Most popular Christmas sweets in the world

Christmas is a special occasion when family members gather around the table and enjoy good food together. During Christmas a …
techbiz.network thanksgiving traditions

American Thanksgiving traditions and festivities

Thanksgiving is a national holiday in several countries such as USA, Canada, Grenada, Liberia, Saint Lucia. However, people in many …

techbiz.network tech awards 2022

Vietnam’s Tech Awards 2022: Shopee Express won The Best Delivery App award while Lazada was recognized as The Best E-commerce Platform in 2022

Shopee Express won the best delivery application award at the recent Vnexpress newspaper’s Tech Award 2022, beating out other nominees like …
techbiz.network uniqlo raise pay in Japan

Uniqlo owner increases pay in Japan up to 40%

Uniqlo owner, Fast Retailing Co, announced on Wednesday that it would increase the yearly pay for full-time workers in Japan …

Leave a Reply